The bookies have Arsenal priced around 4/7 to travel to Birmingham City & beat them but why should Arsenal be such a short price to do what Manchester United, Chelsea, Tottenham, Everton & Man City all failed to do?
The answer to that question is Arsenal should not be as short as 4/7 to win at Birmingham City & to be honest those odds are greatly disrespectful to the excellent job that Alex McCleish and the Birmingham City players have done this season & especially at home.
Birmingham City have been incredibly strong & hard to beat all season & particularly at home with their record of 7 wins & 6 draws from 15 games with only 2 sides having enough to win at St. Andrews in the league this season.
The basis of that strength at home has been their incredible defensive record with only 10 goals conceded in 15 games at home & they have managed to keep clean sheets in 7 of those games with only 2 teams scoring 2 or more goals in a league game at St. Andrews.
The achievement of being placed 9th in the Premier League is quite remarkable for Alex McCleish & his players and although they are unlikely to go any higher, they are certainly determined to achieve as many points as possible & home matches represent their best chance of doing that, no matter who they are playing.
In terms of recent form, Birmingham City come into this match with 2 defeats but we are expecting a really positive, committed response from Birmingham City in this one & after the defeat against Blackburn, Alex McCleish promised that the players would be certainly up for this one & ready to give absolutely everything again.
For Arsenal this is obviously a huge match given that they are only 2 points off the league leaders Manchester United & still holding an excellent chance of winning the title so the 3 points on offer do mean everything to Arsenal.
Arsenal always look to win matches & will of course look to play their positive, flowing style but how they handle coming up against Birmingham City’s totally committed, physically powerful & organised football will be the key to this match.
In terms of natural talent & quality then Arsenal definitely have a clear edge over Birmingham City & to be fair to Arsenal they have also shown greater spirit & strength this season but this will undoubtedly be a tough test & a very tough match to win.
The massive quandry for Arsene Wenger of course is the impending Champions League Quarter Final matches against Barcelona & obviously team selection may well be a major factor in this match.
Will Arsene Wenger want to risk the likes of Fabregas, Arshavin, Eduardo, Nasri & Rosicky againt Birmingham City and potentially not have them fit & ready for Barcelona? – we don’t know what Arsene Wenger will do with team selection but there must be a very big chance that several of the key players will be rested & that will have a big impact on how Arsenal play.
Another major factor is that Thomas Vermaelen, arguably Arsenal’s most consistent performer all season & their main organiser in defence, is suspended for this match & that means Arsenal are likely to rely on a new defensive partnership of Sol Campbel & Mikael Silvestre & that could cause big problems in a match of this nature.
This is obviously going to be a fascinating match & a real test for both sides so it’s hard to call with Birmingham City’s impressive home record possibly the key factor & while a scoring draw looks tempting, we are going to take a value punt on Birmingham City pulling off their biggest win of the season & putting a huge dent in Arsenal’s title hopes.
Betting Recommendations:
Outright Match Result: Birmingham City to win
Correct Score Options: Birmingham City to win 2-0/2-1
First Goalscorer each way/Player to score anytime: McFadden/Jerome/Larsson
Scorecast options: McFadden/Jerome/Larsson score 1st & Birmingham City win 2-0/2-1
Double Result: Birmingham City H/T & F/T