2011/2012 season Ante-post betting preview for the Championship, League 1 & League 2

2011/2012 season Ante-post betting preview for the Championship, League 1 & League 2

The new English domestic football season kicks off this weekend with what is certain to be 10 months of fantastic quality football, excitement, passion, drama & all off that will combine to give millions of football fans great pleasure & entertainment.

The Premier League action starts in 2 weeks time but this coming weekend is all about the tens of managers, the hundreds of players & millions of fans that make up the 72 teams in the football league & it is their big chance to shine in the spotlight.

English football is the most competitive in the world & that is certainly the case within the Championship, League 1 & League 2 as every year it becomes an ever increasingly difficult task to assess the leagues with confidence & deciding who will win the leagues, who will be promoted & who will be relegated can almost be described as mission impossible for punters.

While the task of finding the league winner is tough, we at http://www.bettingpreview.co.uk/blog/ have had a good look at the betting markets for the Championship, League 1 & League 2 and here are our own independent views on the teams we feel are worth following & who offer betting value at this stage:

Ante-post views for the Championship:-

Now usually I sit down to look at the ante-post markets for the Championship at this stage of the season & I normally find myself thinking that the Championship just looks almost impossibly competitive with as many as 10 teams looking to have a fair & reasonable chance of winning The Championship but that doesn’t look the case at all this year with all the bookmakers agreed that there are are 2 clear standout contenders for the prize.

This season the ante-post market for the Championship appears to completely evolve around expectations that West Ham United & Leicester City will be the two major contenders this year & both share favouritism in the betting markets in & around the 5/1 mark with the rest some distance back at anything from 12/1 upwards.

So the key questions to this season in the Championship is do West Ham United & Leicester City both deserve favourite status & if so which one of those two big clubs will take the prize this season.

My answer to the first part is yes I completely believe that both Sam Allardyce’s West Ham United & Sven Goran Eriksson’s Leicester City have everything in place to be the powerhouses in the Championship & I totally understand the reaction of the bookmakers to make them both clear contenders for the Championship.

Last season was a complete disaster for West Ham United, there is no other way to describe with such incredible levels of negativity & depression surrounding the club after their pathetic performances as a club during a season that resulted in a tame & lifeless relegation from the Premier League to the Championship.

Based on the negativity that surrounded West Ham United, it may seem dangerous to assume that things will automatically be different this season because teams have got relegated before from the Premier League & continued to drop through the leagues but quite simply I don’t see that happening with West Ham United because they have finally made a proper managerial appointment with Sam Allardyce installed into the very hot-seat at West Ham United.

Gianfranco Zola was popular as manager at West Ham but ultimately lacked the experience to handle the pressure & failed while Avram Grant was just a disaster from day one, the fans never really supported him, the negativity around him was a huge factor in the negativity surrounding the club & ultimately Avram Grant was again found to be out of his depth at this level.

So now West Ham United find themselves as a club in need of strong leadership, experienced management & proven ability to generate team spirit & belief and now finally in Sam Allardyce they should have the right man for the job & a manager who can handle everything that comes with being at West Ham United.

The signings of Kevin Nolan & Matty Taylor, two players who excelled & mader their names under Sam Allardyce, really do give West Ham a big boost of experience & quality, combine that with an already talented squad and with more signings sure to come, West Ham United look a really solid bet to have a serious shot at the Championship title & very, very strong contenders to gain automatic promotion back to the Premier League.

In the case of Leicester City then Sven Goran Eriksson & the club’s owners look totally & utterly determined to get the club back into the Premier League with a relentless, intensely active transfer policy that has to be seen to believed at this level.

Quite simply Leicester City have so far endeavoured to go heavy & go big into the transfer market with big wages & big fees invested to capture the likes of Matt Mills, John Pantsil, David Nugent, Kasper Schmeichel, Sean St Ledger, Michael Johnson, Paul Konchesky all of whom who are experienced, quality players with the promise of more big moves to come to make Leicester City’s squad stronger & superior to probably every other side in the Championship apart from West Ham United.

The risk with Leicester City is that Sven Goran Eriksson has to find a way for all of these new players to settle together & it may start slowly for them but the players are so good & so experienced that Sven Goran Eriksson will surely make it work & when that happens it will make Leicester City very hard to stop this season & like West Ham United they look serious title & promotion contenders.

Of course the Championship is a league that consists of 24 clubs & has always proven to be a fiercely competitive league so it cannot be simply dismissed as a two horse race with huge clubs such as Nottingham Forest, Leeds United, Cardiff City, Birmingham City, Reading, Ipswich, Southampton & Burnley all determined to have a real go at reaching the promise land of the Premier League & the tremendous riches that will bring.

All of those clubs mentioned with give it their very best shot & have talent within their squads to push but at the same time they all have big questions to answer first with Steve Maclaren having to prove himself at Nottingham Forest, Chris Hughton charged with turning around relegated Birmingham City under limited finances, Malkay Mackay taking over at Cardiff City with a small squad lacking numbers, Reading & Burnley looking likely to lose their better players with Ipswich & Southampton look like clubs in early stages of progression.

The teams who want to win the Championship & gain promotion will have to show immense commitment, belief, quality, determination & a willingness to compete solidly for 10 long, hard months so it will be a serious test of managers & players and as things stand right now West Ham United & Leicester City do look the two best placed teams to have an all out fight for the title.

So West Ham United & Leicester City do look absolute standout contenders for the Championship title & it will be a major shock if either of those two fail to win promotion, the financial strength of Leicester City & their ability to keep strengthening what is already a very strong squad makes Leicester City seriously appealing & very hard to dismiss over the course of the season but I just believe that Sam Allardyce’s proven experience in this type of scenario could be the decisive factor this season as he will have a quality squad at his disposal at West Ham United & the East London club get my vote but it will most probably be quite close.

West Ham United get my recommendation as the main bet but I have huge respect for what Leicester City are likely to offer & so a saver bet on Leicester City also has to form part of the ante-post portfolio, with West Ham United & Leicester City both covered it should give me a huge run for my money this season.

Betting Recommendations for the Championship:

Main Bet:- West Ham United each way for the Championship
Saver Bet:- Leicester City each way

 

 

Ante-post views for League 1:-

League 1 is always fiercely competitive & it really is a tough test that any team has to pass & pass well if they are to win the League and that will definitely be the case again this season but I believe one team do look outstanding contenders to take the main prize this time around.

In my opinion Lee Clark’s Huddersfield Town are the strongest looking contenders for League 1 this year after finishing a very good 6th two seasons ago & then improving on that again last year to go very, very close to automatic promotion with a very good points total in 3rd position that probably would have usually seen them promoted in a normal season but the incredible strength of Brighton & Southampton meant they just missed out.

Obviously Lee Clark’s Huddersfield Town do have to prove they can bounce back after their Play-Off Final defeat against Peterborough but I personally don’t see a problem on that front as Lee Clark is a mentally strong, determined character & a very positive man-manager who will be able to again drive his players on & inspire them and for me Huddersfield Town do set a very good standard for everybody else to aim at & I really cannot see them finishing outside the top 3 again this year making them look banker each way material at the very least.

Sheffield Wednesday & Sheffield United are rated by the bookmakers to be the main rivals to Huddersfield Town and clearly the one thing those two big local rivals can count upon is fantastic support in huge numbers but in turn that brings huge pressure & expectations and I personally think those pressures make backing either of the Sheffield clubs a risky proposition at this early stage.

Phil Brown will certainly be endeavouring to get Preston back into the Championship at the first attempt & he has the proven experience to know what will be required but whether he can do enough quick enough with a very limited squad will remain to be seen & again probably best to wait to see how Preston start the season before placing any concrete financial interest in them.

The other team that greatly interests me as a value each way option for League 1 this season is MK Dons who in my opinion have one of the most talented & promising young managers in Karl Robinson & I think he can again inspire what appears to be a talented squad for this level & a squad that can do a good job in what is a wide open league.

The other teams that I believe will have good seasons & be in contention for the play-offs include Notts County, Scunthorpe, Chesterfield, Bournemouth & Charlton and everything looks set for another cracking season in League 1.

Betting Recommendations for League 1:

Main Bet: Huddersfield Town each way for League 1
Saver Bet: MK Dons each way for League 1

 

 

Ante-post views for League 2:-

My feelings for League 2 are quite simplistic but entirely accurate as I believe League 2 is & always has been a complete lottery & puzzle that looks almost impossible for punters to solve although this year the bookmakers don’t quite share that view.

I have heard it said that the National Lottery would be entirely appropriate sponsors for League 2 because the chances of correctly & confidently predicting the winners of League 2 before a ball has been kicked are similar to the chances of winning the lottery.

Ok, that is an exaggeration on my part but a valid one as it perfectly portrays the difficulty in deciding which team or group of teams will go well in League 2 this season & fight their way to success through what must be the toughest & most competitive league anywhere, if there is another tougher league to solve then I certainly can’t think of another league like it .

The honest truth with League 2 is that all the teams are capable of beating each other, home or away, and that has always been the case in this incredible league and definitely likely to be the case again this year so the question is how does that reflect in the betting markets for League 2.

The answer to that is the bookmakers have installed Crawley as very clear, outright favourites for League 1 & on the face of it the general price of 3/1 for Crawley to take League 1 does look very, very short for such a competitive league.

The thought of taking 3/1 about a team in the ultra-competitive 24 team League 1 would not have been a thought that I would have welcomed or considered for longer than a few seconds in recent years & the odds seem short but again I do believe the bookmakers are not far wrong in having Crawley so far clear of their rivals.

Crawley are stepping up from dominating Non-League football into the big time of League football & it will be a real challenge for them but they are a seriously well run club with a fantastic budget for League 2 level & most importantly a club with positive momentum of achieving & winning and the confidence gained from that could well be the key to their hopes again this year.

Crawley invested big to get promotion to the football league last season & I am sure they will continue to invest to have a serious go at getting promotion again this season so as this stand right now, Crawley do look the team to beat in League 2 this year.

Of course while Crawley do look a solid bet for League 2, it makes perfect sense in such a fiercely competitive league to add a few more options to the portfolio and in my view the best looking value options are Shrewsbury Town & Accrington Stanley.

Shrewsbury Town had a very good, consistent season last year & went very close to securing automatic promotion, only missing out on the final weekend with that & then unfortunately failing to do themselves justice in the play-offs after that.

Every team that goes through failure in the play-offs has to prove they can bounce back & that will be a test for Shrewsbury Town this season but they proved last year they had a very good, consistent team & as long as they don’t suffer a hangover from the play-offs, then I can see Shrewsbury Town having another cracking season this year & they look excellent each way value.

Accrington Stanley are a general 40/1 shot for League 2 this year & admittedly they may well be a slightly risky proposition but at that price the risk is definitely worth taking about a team who always look to play excellent, attacking football & always look to win games and if they can find consistency in performance & results this year that 40/1 might end up looking absolutely massive come the end of the season.

Betting Recommendations for League 2:-

Main Bet:- Crawley to win League 2
Saver Bets:- Accrington Stanley & Shrewsbury Town each way for League 2

 

 
Those are our own independent views on what we believe to be the best value betting options in the Championship, League 1 & League 2 and we hope they provide ideas & indeed betting success for the season ahead.

Whatever ante-post football bets you choose to go for, we of course recommend that you shop around for the best prices & best terms and we at http://www.bettingpreview.co.uk/blog/ of course wish you all the best of luck with your football bets for the season.

Team by Team guide for the 2011/2012 Premier League Season – As things stand now

Team by Team guide for the 2011/2012 Premier League Season – As things stand now

The English Premier League is the pinnacle of domestic football in England & it is where every team truly wants to be so they can test themselves week in, week out against the very best players & managers.

Premier League status offers every member team the opportunity to play their valued part in the most competitive & arguably most exciting domestic football league anywhere in europe & indeed the entire footballing world with it’s global appeal proof of that.

The Premier League is a true, honest test & a proper competition in every sense of the word, with every team possessing the ability & desire to beat anybody on their day and that is something that other domestic leagues cannot claim.

An intriguing, potent mix of factors such as finance, size of support, history of the club, profile of the club, squad strength & indeed quality of players required does ensure that only a select group of teams can ultimately aim for the top prize itself, though that is not to the detriment of the Premier League & nor does affect the what is offered on a weekly basis, all the teams are valued & they all play their full part in the League.

Once the action kicks-off in the Premier League we are certain that the season stretching from August to May will provide fantastic entertainment, excitement, great goals, controversy, drama & an overall footballing package that cannot be matched anywhere in the world and that is something for us all to appreciate & greatly look forward to.

We all know that events & situations constantly evolve in football with the 24/7 approach to transfer news & speculation and there are certainly going to be a lot more deals & move made between now an the end of August but as things stand right now here is our team by team guide to the forthcoming Premier League season, who the key players will be, what are the main strengths & weaknesses and where we believe that may well leave each team come the end of the season:

ARSENAL:- It is often said in life that it is how you respond to failings & mistakes that define who you are & where you will end up and it has to be said that Arsene Wenger & his Arsenal side simply have not learned from their repeated mistakes & failings and again face a season of frustration.

In the team by team guide to Premier League last season I wrote the following about Arsenal last August:-

“Those problems have been obvious for the last 5 seasons & yet Arsene Wenger seems reluctant to make the changes required so in our mind we see them producing more of the same again this season, a season long mixture of great quality attacking performances combined with defensively weak & dis-organised performances and ultimately we see Arsenal once again falling short of success in the Premier League.”

Without sounding boastful & indeed taking no real pleasure in it, that paragraph proved to be absolutely spot on with Arsenal playing sublime attacking football & looking capable of beating anybody yet ultimately they lacked the spirit, the belief & the character over the course of the full season & ultimately their season whittled away & left them well off the pace in 4th position.

So Arsene Wenger now comes into this season knowing that Arsenal have achieved nothing for 6 years & that surely has to change this year, the Arsenal fans will not stand for another season of failure & surely neither will the Arsenal board so Arsene Wenger & his team have to somehow find a way to deliver trophies to the Emirates this year.

The big questions is how will Arsene Wenger do that with a squad that is highly likely to be without key players Cesc Fabregas & Samir Nasri as they both look set to leave in big money deals & no apparent sign that Arsenal will be signing the top quality needed to replace them.

Arsenal will surely sign players between now & August 31st so I expect them to have a strong squad but the loss of Cesc Fabregas & Samir Nasri will be a huge blow to Arsenal & that combined with their annual failure to consistently show the character, organisation & belief that Premier League winners require then I really cannot see Arsenal seriously challenging for the title & they face a huge challenge to match or better last seasons finish of 4th so the pressure is definitely on Arsene Wenger & it will be fascinating to see how he handles it, if he can that is.
Key Players:- The form & more importantly fitness of Robin Van Persie will be key for Arsenal because if he stays fit for long periods then goals & wins will come but just as importantly the return & hopefully consistent performances of Thomas Vermahlen in central defence will be vital to Arsenal if they are to have any chance of success.
Predicted Final League Position:- 4th

ASTON VILLA:- What will happen this season at Aston Villa really is anybody’s guess in my opinion – Martin O’Neill quit as Aston Villa manager last august, the unpopular Gerard Houllier came & went because of his unfortunate health problems & nobody in the world could have predicted that Alex McLeish would end up being Aston Villa manager but all of that did happen & now it’s a case of seeing how it all unfolds.

The shock appointment of Alex McLeish as Aston Villa manager certainly did not go down well with the Aston Villa faithful & I don’t suppose for one minute they will be happy about their best players Stewart Downing & Ashley Young being sold and allround Aston Villa just appear like a club in limbo & it’s a tough call to decide which way they might go & particularly after last seasons prolonged battle against the prospect of relegation.

What we do know about Alex McLeish is that he is an excellent man-manager, has fantastic experience & is proven at being able to organise squads, control discipline & instil belief into players so the Aston Villa squad will know exactly what is demanded of them & that should help to bring consistency to performances & create a solid team spirit which will certainly be needed this year.

Alex McLeish knows he faces a huge test to re-build the Aston Villa squad, to somehow try & get the Aston Villa supporters on side & it will definitely test all of his management skills to the full but I think that as long as he is given time then Alex McLeish will instil his beliefs into the squad & Aston Villa as a football club will regain the stability they need but in terms of success it’s tough to envisage anything other than a season that will end with a mid-table finish at best.
Key Players:- Darren Bent has lost the two players who supplied most of his goals in Stewart Downing & Ashley Young so how Alex McLeish replaces them will determine whether Darren Bent can fire the goals again, if he does they will be fine if he doesn’t then it is hard to see where the goals will come from.
Predicted Final League Position:- 10th

BLACKBURN ROVERS:- With Premier League safety only secured on the very last day of the season, Steve Kean will hope that Blackburn Rovers can build upon that final finishing position of 15th & the fans will hope there is much more to come but looking in from the outside there doesn’t look to be much hope of that actually happening.

I certainly don’t want to sound dismissive & over critical of Blackburn Rovers before a ball has been kicked but they struggled badly last year because their squad was not good enough & nothing has changed so far to suggest they will be any better & in fact their most promising prospect & key player Phil Jones has been sold to Manchester United while their other major player Christopher Samba might leave as well so the prospects don’t look good for Blackburn this season.

Steve Kean is a determined & ambitious coach and he has great belief in the Blackburn Rovers squad but the harsh reality is that without some serious investment & an influx of several quality players in all the positions then Blackburn Rovers look set for another season of struggle & they may well have to concentrate themselves on a relegation battle again but at least in that respect they will know what to expect this time around.
Key Players:- It is absolutely vital that Blackburn Rovers can keep key central defender & inspirational leader Christoper Samba because if he goes then it will be tough to see how Blackburn Rovers will go after that.
Predicted Final League Position:- 16th

BOLTON WANDERERS:- 16th in 2007/08 season, 13th in 2008/09 season & 14th in the 2009/10 season are where Bolton Wanderers have finished in the last 3 seasons & that is the type of range of finishing positions we expect again for Bolton this year too.

Owen Coyle certainly has done a great job at Bolton in terms of the style of play they use, the public image of the club has improved with the myth about long ball Bolton now removed & the Bolton fans are totally behind Owen Coyle but despite all that positivity there does not seem any logical reason why Bolton can expect or hope to finish much higher this season compared to last.

Last year I wrote this about Bolton Wanders in my team by team preview: “we certainly expect Owen Coyle’s positive approach to achieve an higher points total for Bolton this season & again achieve safety although they may not finish any higher up the table.”

Those words proved to be absolutely spot on with Bolton adopting a far more positive approach that did produce a higher league points total but did not help them climb the table & they finished 14th again as predicted.

The reality is that Bolton simply don’t have the funds to compete & they cannot buy the quality they need to progress so while Owen Coyle will continue to make Bolton play better football & entertain the home fans at least, it’s highly unlikely Bolton can go much higher & achieve much more with the squad they have now.
Key Players:- Kevin Davies will once again be the key player at Bolton & that will include Gary Cahill if they manage to hold on to him.
Predicted Final League Position:- 14th

 

 
CHELSEA:- Another new season means another new manager at Chelsea with Andres Villas-Boas the man in the hot seat & pressure of guiding Chelsea back to the promise land of success after a season without any.

Carlo Ancelotti won the Premier League & F.A. Cup double in his first season in charge at Chelsea & was still sacked only 1 year later so Andres Villas-Boas knows only too well that success is the only option otherwise he will quickly follow Ancelotti, Ranieri, Mourinho & Scolari out of the evolving door on the Chelsea Managers office.

So the big question is can Andres Villas-Boas, a manager who comes with a monumental reputation & indeed a pricetag of £13 million yet only 1 years full experience as a manager deliver the success that Roman Abramhovic demands & can he guide a vastly experience, quality packed but ageing squad to success in the Premier League again.

The true answer is nobody knows yet & it is too early to try and guess what Villas-Boas will achieve but at least he knows he has a top quality squad at his disposal & he also knows that once transfer targets are highlighted, they will arrive & that will only serve to increase the depth of quality within the Chelsea squad.

Chelsea definitely still have enough quality within their squad to mount a serious title challenge & they should be in the mix of things at the business end of the season and whether they can turn that into a title winning challenge will depend on the impact that the young & inexperienced Villas-Boas has, Chelsea finished 2nd last year & they may well have to settle for 2nd best again.

Key Players:- It’s a case of business as usual for Chelsea with Petr Cech, John Terry, Frank Lampard, Didier Drogba the absolute key to Chelsea’s chances of success while Fernando Torres has to deliver the form & goals if Chelsea are to get the title back.
Predicted Final League Position:- 2nd

 

 
EVERTON:- David Moyes is in my opinion right up alongside the finest managers anywhere & the job he has done at Everton is nothing short of incredible & yet he never quite seems to get the credit he deserves & to be fair neither do the Everton players.

Everton finished 4th in 2004/05, 11th in 2005/06, 6th in 2006/07, 5th in 2007/08, 5th in 2008/09, 8th in 2009/10 & 7th in 2010/11 season – that sequence of league finishes is fantastic & any manager can be proud of the consistency in performance & quality that needs to be produced to maintain results like that.

David Moyes has been the man responsible for guiding Everton to all those excellent finishes & what makes those achievements even better is the fact he continues to operate on a very minimal, almost non-existent budget in a league when most teams, even the worst ones, do have a healthy budget to operate with.

David Moyes faces a tough task again this year to get his Everton players to repeat last years 7th position as basically all the teams in & around them have strengthened their squads but the great strength of David Moyes is the fact he is able to instil his own natural characteristics of belief, determination, a desire to fight for everything into his players & the Everton players always respond.

So I don’t expect Everton to be quite good enough to break into the top 5 but they can certainly challenge for 6th/7th & if they do achieve that again then once again David Moyes & the Everton players can be hold their heads high & be very proud of what they have done.

Key Players:- Phil Jagielka is key to guide & control Everton’s defence, Mikel Arteta & Fellaini are vital to Everton’s cause in midfield while Tim Cahill will once again expected to be their inspiration from the front and how those 4 will perform will be the key along with the likes of Loui Saha, Jack Rodwell & Leighton Baines.
Predicted Final League Position:- 7th

 

 
FULHAM:- Martin Jol was the first choice manager for Fulham when the wanted to replace Roy Hodgson last summer but circumstances meant they couldn’t get him & Mark Hughes took the job on & did a fantastic job guiding Fulham to 8th place & again a chance to play in european football.

Achieving 8th position & european football again for Fulham was fantastic so it was a huge surprise when Mark Hughes left the job earlier this summer but this time around Fulham didn’t waste any time at all & made sure they got their man with Martin Jol being given the job & chance to get back into the Premier League again.

Martin Jol did a fantastic job at Tottenham & has great experience of coaching throughout europe so it should prove to be a brilliant appointment by Fulham & there is every reason to expect that Fulham can again achieve a top 10 finish & push again for a top 7 or 8 finish if they can play their best for long enough during what will be another long season.
Predicted Final League Position:- 9th

 

 
LIVERPOOL:- Andy Carroll £35 million, Lui Suarez £25 million, Jordan Henderson £20 million, Stewart Downing £20 million, Charlie Adam £9 million – that is serious, serious investment that has been made by Liverpool to try & make sure they have a strong season, get back in the Champions League again & be in the position to win things again but the really big question will the mega gamble actually pay off??

£109 million spent on 5 players is a real statement of intent from Liverpool & all 5 players should really improve what Liverpool do on the pitch & certainly give them more creativity, width & attacking threat but Liverpool’s big weakness last year was in defensive situations & they have done nothing in the transfer market to put that right & that might prove to be far more costly than the money spent.

Importantly for Liverpool though they do at least go into a new season full of optimism & indeed the Liverpool faithful finally believe that with Kenny Dalglish in charge & a whole stack of expensive new signings that they will do well again & mix with the big boys again but their defensive fragility does concern me & I can ultimately see that weakness at the back costing them from achieving what they want to this season, they have a chance of Champions League football but might just miss out.

Key Players:- Andy Carroll, Lui Suarez, Steven Gerard & Stewart Downing will be the key attacking players but the actual key to whether Liverpool can achieve something will depend largely on the defensive unit & Jamie Carragher will have to do some sterling work carrying a poor defensive unit if Liverpool are to have any chance.
Predicted Final League Position:- 6th

 

 
MANCHESTER CITY:- Carlos Tevez – will he stay or will he go??? – unfortunately as things stand now that is the key element regarding Manchester City & it doesn’t seem to matter right now that Manchester City won the F.A. Cup & finished 3rd in the Premier League last season and should come into this season with renewed belief & confidence that they can finally compete properly for the League title.

Manchester City now have a trophy in the cabinet & that taste of success should help to drive their incredibly expensive & multi-talented squad to believe that they can take the next big step & go for the Premier League title but it is the Carlos Tevez situation that is overshadowing the club right now & until that goes away it might well continue to stop Manchester City being as good as they can be.

There is no doubting that Carlos Tevez has been Manchester City’s best & most influential player for the last few years with his goals & overall contribution a major, major factor in their success so the fact he wants to leave & his trying very hard to leave is a big concern for Manchester City but letting this situation drag on will cause more damage to the team than it would to let him go right now so what Manchester City achieve this year will ultimately depend on what happens to Tevez.

If Carlos Tevez stays then they will have a player on the books who has repeatedly stated he wants to leave & that can only damage team spirit while if he goes it will mean Manchester City losing their best player & that would leave a big hole in their side.

Of course Manchester City have unlimited funds & are likely to sign several high profile, high quality players in the next few weeks with or without Tevez they will still have a high quality squad that should be able to put a solid & consistent league title challenge together & even if they don’t quite have enough to win it, they should comfortably have to finish top 3 again.

Key Players:- Joe Hart, Yaya Toure, David Silva, Nigel De Jong, Vincent Kompany are massively important players for Manchester City & they look set to have vital roles again this year so how they play will reflect in how well Man City do this year.
Predicted Final League Position:- 3rd

 

 

MANCHESTER UNITED:- Quite simply Sir Alex Ferguson & Manchester United set a very high standard & if any team finishes above Manchester United this season they are highly like to be champions because it’s tough to see one side being better & stronger than United let alone two sides who will finish above them.

Describe by manys as not a vintage League winning side & certainly not a vintage Manchester United side, under valued by many in the media, Sir Alex Ferguson’s Manchester United recorded a tremendous 19th League title win by displaying great quality, consistency, character, determination & just an immense belief in their own ability to get the job done, get the games won & get more points than any other team.

The simple truth is as things stand right now Manchester United set the standards for everybody else to try & aim at and definitely, 100% deserve to be strong favourites to take the Premier League title again & they’ve cemented a title winning side by adding real quality to the squad that will just make them even stronger next season & beyond.

Ashley Young, Phil Jones & David De Gae have come into the squad to replace Paul Scholes, John O’Shea & Edwin Van De Sar and even though they were 3 excellent players & truly world class in the case of Scholes & Van der Saar, those 3 signings really will give the United squad a huge lift & will serve to make the players work harder & compete harder to get into the team & stay there.

So a Manchester United title winning squad that has been freshened up with real quality definitely sets the standard for this season & with the promise of more high class talent still to come in, Sir Alex Ferguson’s men will take all the beating & look a very solid option to make it League title number 20 & if anybody is to stop them it will take a huge effort.

Key Players:- The team spirit, desire to win & belief is the key factor at Manchester United & every player counts but certainly Wayne Rooney, Nemanja Vidic, Rio Ferdinand are likely to be the core players who will dictate the play & lead United on the field this season
Predicted Final League Position:- 1st

 

 

NEWCASTLE UNITED:- The general vibes about Newcastle United & indeed Alan Pardew don’t seem that positive this summer & many are tipping Newcastle United to struggle but I personally think those negative thoughts are off the mark & disrespectful to Newcastle United and I am sure they will do their best to prove people wrong.

Alan Pardew has never really received the praise & respect for the job he has done at Newcastle United since taking over & the fact he comfortably kept Newcastle United up in the Premier League by finishing a highly creditable 12th seems to have completely passed most of the media by but that is fact & Alan Pardew can be very proud of the job he has done & of his squad.

The Newcastle United squad is not the strongest in terms of quality & quantity and the loss of Kevin Nolan will be noticed but I like the look of the players that Newcastle United will have next season & as long as the mainly young french talent that they now have settle down well then I think Newcastle United can go well & surprise people again this season.

Key Players:- Demba Ba, Ben Arfa, Cabaye, Abeid & Marveaux all look interesting & potentially interesting young talents to me & they can hopefully give Newcastle United a really fresh & creative spark this season.
Predicted Final League Position:- 15th

 

 

NORWICH CITY:- From day one in management, Paul Lambert always looked like a young manager going places & always destined to make it big and he’s certainly done that in fine style taking Norwich City from a 7-1 thrashing in League 1 to the Premier League promise land & no matter what Norwich City do this season, this surely won’t be Paul Lambert’s last season in the Premier League.

That said, Paul Lambert will not be thinking like that & he will be 100% focused on making sure Norwich City have a really determined & positive effort at life in the Premier League & his personal positivity & determination will give the Norwich City players the belief they need to compete, whether they have enough quality & experience is another matter though.

Norwich City were really impressive in the Championship, entertaining their fans playing great, attacking football & scoring goals for fun but they will find that approach much tougher in the Premier League & while they will impress people with their positive nature, the lack of Premier League quality & experience will surely be a major factor & a relegation battle looks on the card & it might well be one they ultimately end up losing.

Key Players:- Steve Morrison’s goals will be vital as will Grant Holt’s while Bradley Johnson, Anthony Pilkington & James Vaughan bring pace & creativity to the side
Predicted Final League Position:- 19th

 

 
QUEENS PARK RANGERS:- Neil Warnock’s Queens Park Rangers were absolutely fantastic in the Championship last season, winning 24 & only losing 6 of their 46 games to win the league with relative comfort after being in control for large parts of the season.

Now the real test starts for Neil Warnock & he knows only too well that his players will really have to fight for everything & step up their performance levels if they are to have any chance of pulling off what would be a great survival because on the face of it QPR’s squad does not look good enough or strong enough to get through the tough demands of the Premier League season.

Having said that I do feel that if any of the promoted clubs are going to survive then I think QPR have the best chance as long as they keep Neil Warnock in charge, if they do that then I can see them being well organised, competitive & hard to beat at home and that might just enable them to pull it off as long as they can keep things ticking over with wins here & there.

It will be seriously tough though & it will test Neil Warnock & his players to the limit but I think QPR might just do it & pull off the great survival which would surely go down as Neil Warnock’s greatest achievement in football.

Key Players:- I know this is cheating a little but all of QPR players will be vital, there is no standout superstar at QPR & it will all be based around team spirit, work ethic & commitment and if they show enough of that as a squad that might be good enough.
Predicted Final League Position:- 17th

 

 
STOKE CITY:- Tony Pulis knows exactly what he wants from his players, the Stoke City fans know what they want & indeed everybody expects Stoke City to do what they do best & again do more than enough to stay in the Premier League with comfort.

Of course that all sounds too simplistic & it’s far from that, it has been tough for Stoke City to survive but they have done & now look a solid fixture in the Premier League comfortably finishing 13th & only 3 points off 8th position and to top all that they got to an F.A. Cup Final as well.

Tony Pulis & Stoke City certainly do have those that knock them for their style of football & approach to matches but Stoke City are incredibly effective & give 100% every single time, the fans offer fantastic support all the time & once again that combination will be easily enough to keep them in the mid-table region of the Premier League.

Key Players:- Matthew Etherington is a big key feature of how Stoke City play, Kenwyn Jones, Jonathan Walters & Jermaine Pennant are key to Stoke City’s as they provide they extra quality & dnyamic play that gives them a huge edge in games when they play well.
Predicted Final League Position:- 11th

 

 
SUNDERLAND:- Steve Bruce has by far been the busiest manager around this summer with transfer after transfer happening at the Stadium of Light & quite clearly Sunderland are totally intent on making sure their nightmare end of season slump has no chance of happening again.

That horrible run of bad injuries, loss of form & bad results saw Sunderland slump alarmingly down the table & flaunting dangerously with the threat of relegation until the last few weeks of the season but the signings of Sebastian Larsson, Craig Gardener, Wes Brown, John O’Shea, David Vaughan, Connor Wickham + a few others really has bolstered the Sunderland squad with quality & experience now.

That extra quality & experience should see Sunderland have a good, solid season and they looked booked for at least matching last seasons finish of 10th & they could well go higher than that if the players go well together from the start of the season with their home form likely to be their strong point again.

Key Players:- Asamoah Gyan’s goals will be important but the signings of O’Shea, Brown, Gardener & Larsson really do add some real experience to the Sunderland squad & that should prove vital this season.
Predicted Final League Position:- 8th

 

 

SWANSEA CITY:- Brendan Rodgers has already done a tremendous job at Swansea guiding the team through a sensational season in the Championship losing only 6 games & a fantastic victory in the Play-Off Final but if he can somehow pull of survival in the Premier League with Swansea then that will put all that well & truly into the shade.

Admittedly it is obviously expecting a lot for a small club like Swansea on limited finances to properly compete with the big boys in the Premier League but Brendan Rodgers will definitely not see it like that & he will certainly use Blackpool as the inspiration & guide to be positive & have a real go.

Swansea’s positive, passing football will win them a lot of friends this season just as Blackpool did with their attacking philosophy but when you look at it honestly then Swansea really don’t appear to have the necessary Premier League quality & just as importantly proven experience at the top level and Swansea will face a massive struggle to survive & I personally don’t think they will.

Key Players:- Danny Graham & Scott Sinclair will be responsible for getting the goals to try & keep Swansea in the top flight & how they do will probably decide what Swansea do
Predicted Final League Position:- 20th

 

 
TOTTENHAM:- Like so many teams around, this summer has been pretty tough for Tottenham & nothing really positive has happened yet so there seems a kind of doom & gloom to be hanging around with the whole Luka Modric ‘will he stay or will he go’ saga rumbling on with no end in sight.

It is that whole drawn out & messy transfer saga surrounding Luka Modric that has dominated Tottenham’s summer & until the situation is resolved one way or the other then I really don’t see that changing.

The facts are Tottenham have some fantastic talent within their squad & have the capabilities to seriously compete & have a real go at getting back into the top 4 again but what happens to Luka Modric will be the vital key to it all.

If Luka Modric stays then Tottenham will still have one of the very best players in the Premier League & that will keep all their other star players happy & motivated and maybe even encourage more top class players to join but if Tottenham sell Modric then it really would be a huge blow to the club & they might suffer a bad reaction to it that could cost them again this season.

To be fair Tottenham should still have enough within their ranks to make sure they at least match last seasons achievement of finishing 5th & while Harry Redknapp will want to desperately get back into the Champions League, 5th place in the Premier League is still an achievement & something Tottenham can be proud of.

Key Players:- Luka Modric if he goes or stays will be a key influence, Gareth Bale, Defoe, Van der Vaart & Michael Dawson will be the key spine to the team & how those 4 perform on a weekly basis will certainly go a long way to seeing where Tottenham finish.
Predicted Final League Position:- 5TH

WEST BROM:- Last season was an incredible roller coaster for West Brom manager Roy Hodgson having suffered badly with Liverpool before going onto West Brom and inspiring them to go from almost relegation certainties to mid table comfort in 11th so this time Hodgson will definitely only want to experience the highs.

When Roy Hodgson took over West Brom they were in totall freefall & looked doomed but somehow Roy Hodgson was able to have an immediate impact by straight away bringing discipline, organisation & team spirit to combine with West Brom’s positive football philosophy and it proved to be successful with Peter Odemwinge, Chris Brunt & Mulumbu the stars of the show for the Baggies.

The one problem with finishing 11th is the fact that expectations at West Brom will be higher this season & the pressure will be on Hodgson & the players to at least match that so how the West Brom players handle that change in expectation will be the absolute key to what West Brom do this season but as long as they keep the key players mentioned they should be fine & stay up with comfort.

Key Players:- Odemwinge, Mulumbu & Brunt are the 3 players within the West Brom squad that have extra level of quality & how they perform will go along way to deciding what West Brom do & they will need all 3 in form & consistent all season to do as well again.
Predicted Final League Position:- 12th

 

 

WIGAN:- Roberto Martinez produced an absolute miracle to somehow keep Wigan in the Premier League last season when for 99% of it they looked certain to go down so he deserves tremendous praise for that but the stark reality is the task to stay up this season will be tougher than ever.

The honest facts & realities are that Wigan simply don’t have enough Premier League quality players within their squad & indeed their squad is very, very thin so with the likely sales of star players Charles N’Zogbia & Hugo Rodallega then it’s hard to imagine how Wigan will cope this season & another long, hard season looks guaranteed.

I again expect Roberto Martinez to win praise for the way Wigan will look to play positive, possession football but this time around I just don’t see it being enough & I think this could be the season that Wigan finally slip through the trap door back into the Championship, if they survive Martinez will have performed another miracle.

Key Players:- If Wigan sell N’Zogbia & Rodallega as expected then it’s hard to see who will be good enough to Wigan & inspirational enough to make a real difference so if N’Zogbia & Rodallega stay Wigan have a chance, if they go they have very little chance.
Predicted Final League Position:- 18th

 
WOLVES:- One solitary point was all that kept Mick McCarthy’s Wolves in the Premier League last season & everybody at the club will be desperate to avoid another lengthy battle against relegation this season so it will be fascinating to see how Mick McCarthy’s team respond this year.

Mick McCarthy has signalled his clear intentions on making sure Wolves do their very best to avoid that happening with some very interesting signings so far this year with the excellent central defender Roger Johnson & high energy midfielder Jamie O’Hara bought in on permanent deals and those two alone will add a real element of quality & solidity to the Wolves squad.

Mick McCarthy will also be hoping that key strikers Kevin Doyle & Steven Fletcher stay fit & actually manage to play together because they didn’t manage that last year & if they can do it this year that should make Wolves much more of a threat & give them much more chance to get draws & wins from matches this year.

Wolves actually played a lot better than their final position suggested last year & if they can do that again with the likes of O’Hara, Johnson, Doyle & Fletcher the majority of their games then they should have enough to stay up with a bit more comfort this time although how high they can actually climb is unsure but then again safety is all that really matters to those at Wolves.

Key Players:- As I mentioned the likes of Jamie O’Hara, Doyle, Fletcher & Roger Johnson will be absolutely key to Wolves & their form will decide what Wolves achieve this year.
Predicted Final League Position:- 13th

The Newmarket July Festival Preview – Day 3

The Newmarket July Festival Preview – Day 3

Day 2 produced another fantastic day of quality racing & Henry Cecil once again took the honours at Newmarket with Timepiece winning the Group 1 Falmouth which was the big feature race of the day & that would have gone down very well with the locals as would Frankie Dettori winning the Group 2 Cherry Hinton on Gamilati for Godolphin.

Another excellent supporting cast of winners included the highly progressive INSTANCE winning the first, Sir Mark Prescott did his old trick of landing the big handicap on the card with victory for Coeus while the shock of the day at Newmarket came in the last with Albaqaa taking the honours at 50/1.

In terms of punters against bookmakers battle then the bookmakers definitely won again with some heavily backed favourites turned over, only 1 winning favourite on the card & a a whole of host of big priced winners coming in at 14/1, 16/1, 25/1 & 50/1.

That leaves only Day 3 for the punters to try & strike back against the bookies but once again the racecard for Newmarket looks incredibly tough & it’s going to be hard work for punters to strike back.

I have had a good look at all the races for Newmarket on Day 3 of the July Festival & here are my own race by race views with the selections that I believe are worth consideration, as ever feel free to decide what to do with them:

2.20 – 32Red.com Superlative Stakes (Group 2), £60000.00 added, 2yo only, 7f, Class 1, 11 runners:- Fantastic & potentially highly informative way to start the day here with a really strong looking Group 2 for some of the very best 2 year old colts around & definitely a few stars waiting to be found here.

Richard Hannon won this contest last year with the brilliant KING TORUS & he again looks to have a serious chance this year with FORT BASTION boasting very strong form & with more improvement still to come the booking of Olivier Peslier really catches the eye & he looks the one to beat.

This is certainly not a one horse race though & there are plenty of strong challengers in the mix waiting to take this race with Mark Johnston’s impressive debutant winner JOHN LIGHTBODY, John Gosden’s GHOSTWRITING & impressive winner PEARL MIX also boasting very impressive wins last time out.

I think one of those 4 will take this & I am giving my main vote to FORT BASTION who ran into a seriously good horse at Royal Ascot & he can get the better of JOHN LIGHTBODY & PEARL MIX in what should be a great race to watch on the day & with the future in mind as well.
Main Selection:-  FORT BASTION  Main Dangers:- JOHN LIGHTBODY & PEARL MIX

 

 

2.55 – 32Red Bunbury Cup (Handicap), £50000.00 added, 3yo plus, 7f, Class 2, 20 runners:- I would think it would be easier to find a needle in a haystack than solve this contest – 20 proven handicappers with closely matched formlines doing battle over 7 furlongs on the Newmarket July course is what the punters face & it really is tough to know where to start.

NASRI, MANASSAS, CROWN CHOICE, LOVELACE, EXCELLENT GUEST, STRIKING SPIRIT, DOCOFTHEBAY, MONT ANGEL, RED GULCH, FATHSTA are 10 runners that I think hold serious form chances of at least getting a place & that still leaves 10 other runners that could take this if they show their best form so it’s just so tough to sort out & definitely a race for just small stakes fun.

20 runners in a handicap means 4 places are up for grabs & so I am going to take 4 each way shots against the field & my shots at this are MANASSAS, DOCOFTHEBAY, RED GULCH & CROWN CHOICE and hopefully one of those can come good & take this but it is serioulsy tough & anything can happen here.
Main Selection:- MANASSAS    Main Dangers:- DOCOFTHEBAY, CROWN CHOICE & RED GULCH

 

 

3.35 – Darley July Cup (British Champions’ Series And Global Sprint Challenge) (Group 1), £400000.00 added, 3yo plus, 6f, Class 1, 17 runners:- This high class Group 1 sprint is the centepiece of the entire 3 day July Festival meeting at Newmarket & the July Cup is a world famous race that all the top sprinters want to win & this year’s renewal has certainly tempted most of the world best to have a crack at the big prize.

17 high class sprinters to choose from here & it’s virtually impossible to rule anything out with confidence & there have been some big priced winners of the big sprint prizes in recent years so it’s hard to know which way to go here.

DELEGATOR is forecast to be favourite & will certainly have a very strong favourites chance if the ground stays quick because the ground, trip & course will all be in the favour DELEGATOR so he is a serious contender but his chances will go if the ground gets softer so not one for me at short prices but definitely a major, major player.

DREAM AHEAD is the really fascinating horse in this line-up because his juvenile form was exceptional & as long as DREAM AHEAD can show his very best in this race then looks certain to go close & should be hard to at least keep out the frame for the finish.

ELZAAM has been very, very popular with punters wanting to get on in the last few days & based on how strongly he finished at Royal Ascot it could well be that Newmarket will suit him perfectly well & as long as the race work out for him he should be right there in the firing line to take this as well, very solid contender.

STAR WITNESS produced two excellent performances inside 4 days at Royal Ascot & clearly either one of those runs is good enough form to take this prize so has to be regarded as a serious contender & another that could prove hard to beat if getting a trouble free passage here.

I honestly do feel that one of those 4 already mentioned will take this but as I also said these are all top class sprinters & all capable of taking this prize on their best form so would not be the biggest shock if a bigger priced winner took this & the best of the rest in this field are definitely represented by BATED BREATH, MONSIEUR CHEVALIER & DALGHAR and again they deserve respect & consideration.

This is an incredibly tough race & one in which I believe at least 7 or 8 have a serious chance of winning but I’m taking STAR WITNESS to be the star of the show here & I think the Australian super sprinter can take this ahead of the likes of DREAM AHEAD, & ELZAAM who will be in their fighting right to the line
Main Selection:- STAR WITNESS    Main Danger:- ELZAAM & DREAM AHEAD

 

 

4.10 – 32Red Casino Handicap, £20000.00 added, 3yo only, 1m, Class 2, 14 runners:- The fact this is only regarded as a class 2 handicap surprises me because there are some very promising & talented horses in the line-up & several whom look capable of winning prizes at Listed level or above so this should be form that works out well & proves worth following as the season goes on.

In terms of trying to work out what will happen in the race itself then that is a very tough question & trying to split 14 progressive types who unquestionably have more improvement to come probably makes this the toughest race of the day to solve in my opinion.

My usual policy in fiercely competitive handicaps such as this is to select a group of horses that I believe have solid form chances & represent fair betting value and for this race my group against the field will be TROPICAL BEAT, ROMAN EAGLE & EKTIBAAS.

TROPICAL BEAT is a very smart horse that I have tipped & backed a few times this season and indeed I did follow John Gosden’s runner at Royal Ascot but things went wrong that day so he never really had a chance to win but he finished well & he can hopefully find more improvement to get involved again here.

Roger Varian runs ROMAN EAGLE here after only having 3 runs as a 2 year old & the fact he carries joint top weight here shows how successful he was in his juvenile career, has to overcome a lengthy absence from the track but Roger Varian’s horses have been in good form & surely he will be primed to run a big race here.

EKTIBAAS is admittedly bit more of a long shot here but Barry Hills’s runner has impressed me a few times this season & I do believe there is a big handicap in him somewhere so he looks worth a shot here at a value price.

So it’s ROMAN EAGLE, TROPICAL BEAT & EKTIBAAS each way against the field for me & they should give me a good run for my money, out of that lot I am taking TROPICAL BEAT as my main pick & the other two as back up selections but it is an incredibly tough race & one to keep stakes low as anything is possible.
Main Selection:-  TROPICAL BEAT    Main Dangers:- ROMAN EAGLE & EKTIBAAS

 

 
4.45 – De La Warr Racing E.B.F. Maiden Fillies’ Stakes, £10000.00 added, 2yo only, 6f, Class 4, 13 runners:- A very interesting but trappy looking fillies maiden here with the usual mix of runners with a run already in the book & the rest yet to make their debuts so it’s again a guessing game in trying to work out which will come out on top.

Last year Gay Kellaway trained the 40/1 shot CATFISH to win this race, now that filly was interestingly sired by One Cool Cat & amazingly enough her runner this year CAT QUEEN is also a filly sired by One Cool Cat so perhaps she could be an interesting runner at a big price.

Following the theme of historical patterns then last year Godolphin finished 2nd in this race & this year they have another strong looking contender with the incredibly expensive purchase DESERT GAZELLE put in as their main hope & again another contender who commands respect.

Others of interest are KUNE KUNE & LADY JAMEELA who finished 4th & 3rd respectively in a potentially useful maiden at Newbury and they should certainly both show improvement after their debut runs.

Maidens are never really the right type of races to get seriously involved in & this one looks seriously trappy so I’m going to take a chance on history repeating itself & I’m going for a sporting punt on Gay Kellaway’s CAT QUEEN to make a winning debut here with DESERT GAZELLE, LADY JAMEELA & KUNE KUNE likely contenders for the prizes as well.
Main Selection:-  CAT QUEEN e/w Main Danger:- DESERT GAZELLE

 
5.20 – Jaguar XF Nursery, £15000.00 added, 2yo only, 7f, Class 2, 12 runners:- Basically this is a handicap for 2 year olds & just like every other Newmarket Handicap it’s one that will take some winning & certainly does represent to punters to trying to get their heads around it.

12 runners with real potential to be extra smart line-up here & certainly a bunch of 2 year olds that might well be challenging for some big prizes as the season goes so there is definitely an element of guesswork involved again to try & sort them all out.

For me it just looks to tough & demanding to try and work out the handicaps & the relevance of each piece of form so again I’m just going to nominate a group of horses that I believe can run well, challenge for the places & hopefully give us a winner to cheer about as well.

My group of 2 year olds against the field are: OVERPOWERED, DEMOCRETES & GREATEST DANCER and I think I will get a good run for my money from them but yet again it’s a race in which to keep stakes low & just sit back to enjoy what should be fantastic action.
Main Selection:-  OVERPOWERED   Main Dangers:- DEMOCRETES/GREATEST DANCER

 

 

 

 
5.55 – Egerton House Stables Handicap, £13000.00 added, 3yo plus, 1m 4f, Class 3, 16 runners:-  Quite typically for what has been an incredibly tough & fiercely competitive July Festival, this final race of the meeting is yet another seriously tough handicap with a whole host of valid candidates waiting to take the glory here.

On Day 1 of the meeting trainers Roger Varian & Luca Cumani clashed with Fulgur getting the better of MIJHAAR and incredibly this race provides another excellent opportunity to for those two to clash again with horses under the same ownership.

Roger Varian runs ITTIRAD for Sheik Ahmed Al Makhtoum & Luca Cumani runs SPIFER and they both looks fantastic handicap opportunity again here so should be a great battle as they both come here in good form & get to race off good looking, low weights.

Other strong contenders who command respect here are TANFEETH, MAGICALMYSTERYTOUR & PORGY & they can all run well here.

Very tough race, seriously competitive & not a race to get too seriously involved in, I’m going with ITTIRAD & SPIFER as the main contenders with PORGY as a decent priced each way option as a back up bet.
Main Selection:-  ITTIRAD   Main Danger:- SPIFER & PORGY
As always, they are just my own views on the days racing at Newmarket & hopefully they help in some way, good luck with all the bets you may have & remember to shop around to get the best terms & conditions.

The Newmarket July Festival Preview – Day 2

The Newmarket July Festival Preview – Day 2

Day 1 of the Newmarket July Festival saw the bookmakers score a unanimous knockout victory over the punters as all the major market moves were turned over & only 1 joint favourite won in the 7 races leaving the punters with a lot of ground to make up for the rest of the 3 day meeting.

Of course it’s certainly not just about the betting aspect & indeed the racegoers on course & race fans at home were treated to a cracking days action with top class performances & seriously competitive racing which really did showcase what racing has to offer.

Sir Michael Stoute & Ryan Moore took the main honours on Day 1 with Crystal Capella’s emphatic victory in the Princess of Wales Stakes & not long after all the celebrations for that victory died down then Ryan Moore was at it again on the highly promising 2 year old Harbour Watch who looks something special in the making.

Derby winning jockey M Barzalona also got in on the double winning act by winning the last 2 races on Bridgefield & Murura while Masked Marvel, Frederick Engles & Fulgur all produced excellent victories to get the meeting off to a flying start.

Unfortunately for this thread the results did not go our way but I am determined to move forward & Day 2 of Newmarket July meeting provides another fantastic opportunity to hopefully hit some winners to go along with the top quality racing on offer.

I have had a really good look at the races & here are my own race by race views & from that the selections that I feel are worth consideration, as ever please take a look & see what you think:
1.20 – Piper-Heidsieck Champagne Irish E.B.F. Fillies’ Handicap, £20000.00 added, 3yo only, 7f, Class 2, 13 runners:- Following a tough Day 1 for punters, Day 2 gets off to an incredibly tough start here with a Fillies Handicap that looks a real puzzle to try & solve.

Newmarket Handicaps are tough enough & Fillies Handicaps are often several levels tougher and there is no doubt that this race fits into that category, just a nightmare to know where to start assessing this race & amazingly tough to work out which of the fillies will improve more & which one will come out on top here.

All the big trainers are represented here with Jeremy Noseda’s INSTANCE looking a serious contender, John Gosden runs HEZMAH, Sir Michael Stoute runs TUSCANIA, Michael Bell goes with SWEETIE TIME & Clive Cox runs the dual winning CHOKUREI and no doubting all those 4 are serious contenders here who should all run big races here.

The truth is I cannot split that group of contenders & although it’s likely that one of those group will take this prize, I am going to take a sporting chance on Mick Channon’s SONNING ROSE each way at a huge price here because these races at Newmarket quite often end up producing a big price, shock winner & I think SONNING ROSE could be the one this time.

A glance at the form figures doesn’t paint a very promising picture for SONNING ROSE & admittedly the form figures are concerning but Mick Channon has always thought very highly of this horse & there was a big word for her at Royal Ascot so I’m prepared to take a risk on the track & this race suiting SONNING ROSE and she is my sporting each way pick with the others mentioned clearly strong contenders that will be hard to beat & keep out the frame.
Main Selection:- SONNING ROSE e/w    Main Danger:- SWEETIE TIME

 

 

1.50 – totesport.com Stakes (Heritage Handicap)£100000.00 added, 3yo only, 6f, Class 2, 20 runners:- Things do not get any easier for punters here as 20 runners line up in a fiercely competitive looking 6 furlong sprint handicap in which most of the field hold some sort of form chance.

BARNET FAIR is in fine winning form & looks very interesting, LOKI’S REVENGE has a similarly progressive profile, Roger Varian has made a fantastic start to his training career & everything he runs has to be respected so both his runners FORJATT & STEPS need serious consideration as does COEUS, ACCLAMAZING, MURBEH, LEXI’S HERO & DESERT LAW.

To be honest it looks almost impossible to try & split this lot it could be one of those races where you have half the field & still miss the winner so I’m just going to nominate 4 horses to take against the field that I think have solid each way opportunities & will hopefully represent good, successful betting value on the day.

My four against the field are STEPS, FORJATT, DESERT LAW & BARNET FAIR and hopefully they can run to their best form & get involved in the fight for the honours here but it is one of those races where absolutely anything is possible & certainly not a race to get too seriously involved in.
Main Selection:- STEPS  Main Dangers:- FORJATT, DESERT LAW & BARNET FAIR

 

 

 
14:25 – Irish Thoroughbred Marketing Cherry Hinton Stakes (Fillies’ Group 2), £60000.00 added, 2yo only, 6f, Class 1, 11 runners:- This Group 2 for fillies is always a fascinating race & always likely to produce not one but several high class fillies to follow & I am certainly looking forward to this renewal on friday as it could well be one of the best renewals seen in recent years.

SHUMOOS, INETROBIL, MISS WORK OF ART, MY PROPELLER, ILLAUNGLASS, PINK SAPPHIRE, CALEDONIA LADY, RUSSELLIANNA & SAJWAH are 9 high class fillies in their own right & they all bring the level of form & potential that would usually make them strong contenders to win this but the fact 9 of the 11 runners have a serious chance indicates the strength of the race & the challenge that punters face in solving this one.

Indeed the forecast 66/1 outsider BETTY FONTAINE has won 3 of her 4 races to date yet has been completely dismissed so that shows the quality in depth & trying to split the 9 seriously strong contenders is a really tough call to make with confidence.

SHUMOOS is a filly with a huge reputation & will go off favourite for this, there was mega money for her at Royal Ascot & she very nearly delivered only being beaten by a nose so her supporters will want their money back & certainly on form she looks the one to beat but whether she will deserve to be so short odds in such a competitive race is something that concerns me.

MISS WORK OF ART has looked very good & combined talent with guts to win her 3 career starts so while this is an obvious step up in class & a really tough test for her, I would not be surprised to see Richard Fahey’s runner run well & get involved but whether she can be quite good enough to win is tough to say.

The visual impression that MY PROPELLER gave when winning hard held at Pontefract was incredible & indeed while that was only a very weak looking maiden, the way MY PROPELLER sauntered around the track without changing gear just looked so impressive & she has to be give a major chance here with more improvement surely to come from her.

INETROBIL represents last years winning owners Highclere Thoroughbreds syndicate & they will certainly be hoping that INETROBIL can repeat what Memory did & develop into equally as talented filly, her form already looks strong enough & there will be more to come so has to be regarded a serious danger to them all here.

Those 4 look the main contenders in this race but as I said ILLAUNGLASS, CALEDONIA LADY, SAJWAH & RUSSELLIANNA all have the real potential to be very good fillies & all likely to keep improving so it would not be that big a surprise if they featured strongly in the finish.

It’s a high class field & really tough race to solve but I am going to go with MY PROPELLER in the belief that what she displayed at Pontefract was real & can be trusted and if Jamie Spencer can do that to this field then he really could have a very special filly on his hands although the likes of SHUMOOS, MISS WORK OF ART & INETROBIL will make her word hard for the prize.
Main Selection:- MY PROPELLER   Main Dangers:- SHUMOOS & INETROBIL

 

 
15:00 – Etihad Airways Falmouth Stakes (British Champions’ Series) (Fillies’ Group 1), £160000.00 added, 3yo plus, 1m, Class 1, 11 runners:- The highlight of Day 2 here with an absolutely fantastic looking, high class card of seriously well bred fillies from the major yards & it should prove to be a fantastic race to watch & enjoy.

SAPHRESA sets a very high standard here having won & contested several races at the highest level around the world & indeed 2 victories at Newmarket mark Rod Collet’s star filly as the one to beat & a rock solid betting option here, will take a very, very good performance to stop her winning this in my opinion.

Godolphin & Frankie Dettori love to take the really big prizes as they showed with Rewilding at Royal Ascot & in ANTARA they have a serious contender & challenger to SAPHRESA and you can guarantee that Frankie Dettori will be giving absolutely everything to win this huge prize & in my opinion is definitely the most outstanding challenger to SAPHRESA in this field.

I honestly believe that one of SAPHRESA or ANTARA will take this but I must give due respect to the LILY OF THE VALLEY, MEMORY, MAQAASID, RIVER JETEZ as serious fillies in their own right & all well capable of going very close if they can show their very best form here.

This should prove to be one of the highlights of the 3 days at Newmarket & I can envisage a really good, high quality battle between SAPHRESA & ANTARA, it’s not easy splitting them but I’m giving my vote to SAPHRESA who has absolutely rock solid top level form & ANTARA can be the one to fight it out & follow her home.
Main Selection:- SAPHRESA  Main Danger:- ANTARA

 

 

15:35 – Weatherbys E.B.F. Mawatheeq Maiden Stakes, £10000.00 added, 2yo only, 7f, Class 4, 14 runners:- The really big boys come out to play with their expensively bred toys in this fascinating maiden & certainly could prove to be a race well worth watching & noting for the future.

High class Derby runner NATIVE KHAN won this on debut last year & there could well be another classic contender or two waiting to be introduced here but trying to decide which of the well bred 14 runners it could be really is a tough, almost impossible call to make.

Only 3 of the 14 runners have any previous racecourse experience to their names so the task punters face here is will the race be won by one of those with a run under their belts or will it be won by an unraced two year old yet to set foot on the racetrack proper.

My own policy in these types of races is to trust those that have already run & so I’m going to take FISCAL, HURRICANE EMERALD & RIGHT REGAL as 3 options against the field in the hope that experience will count but Newmarket maidens are notoriously difficult to solve & it’s another race for just minimal financial interest, better to sit back & see what talent comes from the race as there is bound to be plenty.
Main Selection:- HURRICANE EMERALD Main Dangers:- FISCAL & RIGHT REGAL

 

 

16:10 – Three Chimneys Maiden Stakes, £10000.00 added, 3yo only, 1m 2f, Class 4, 12 runners:- Another complex looking Newmarket maiden with the same formula as the previous race namely half the field already having racecourse experience & the other half yet to race properly so which one will get the upper hand here.

To be honest it does look more straightforward this time as the twice raced THIMAAR for John Gosden looks absolutely rock solid & totally deserving favourite for this race, the form of his 2 races looks good & certainly should be involved in the finished with more improvement to come here.

so THIMAAR sets a very good standard that might be tough to beat on the day but there are plenty of interesting opponents including Sir Michael Stoute’s EAGLE’S PEAK, Henry Cecil’s ROYAL PECULIAR, SOHAR, RED EYES & STRATEGIC BID all warrant consideration in an interesting maiden.
Main Selection:- THIMAAR  Main Danger:- SOHAR

 
TurfTV Handicap, £13000.00 added, 3yo plus, 1m, Class 3, 19 runners:- Another fiercely tough, ultra competitive handicap to finish the card with & another puzzle for punters to attempt to solve but it won’t be easy by any means.

There are so many serious contenders to consider here & so many tangled form lines that it’s virtually impossible to single one or two runners out with confidence so I am going to nominate 4 horses against the field & whom I think have very fair each way claims at least here.

MARKAZZI heads the list for me here as it is fascinating & indeed always a sign in my opinion when Sir Michael Stoute keeps a horse in training as a 4 year old, this son of Dansili was once very highly regarded & only had a handful of runs due to several problems, I got word about him for his seasonal reappearance & he looked like winning 2 furlongs out before tiring after his first run for 10 months.

Now MARKAZZI should strip a lot fitter for that run & I think he could well be primed for another big run here but obviously will need things to go his way in what might be a rough race.

My other contenders against this field are DIVINE CALL who has the assistance of Ryan Moore & looks incredibly progressive, MARAJAA is a consistent type who should go well & the Barry Hills trained WHISTLE ON BY looks very interesting off a low weight with the brilliant M Barzalona in the saddle.
 
So I’m taking MARKAZZI as my main selection with my back up each way bets being DIVINE CALL, MARAJAA & WHISTLE ON BY but yet again it is a seriously tough race & only one for small fun stakes, sit back & enjoy what should be a cracker.
Main Selection:- MARKAZZI   Main Dangers:- DIVINE CALL, WHISTLE ON BY & MARAJAA

As always, they are just my own views on the days racing at Newmarket & hopefully they help in some way, good luck with all the bets you may have & remember to shop around to get the best terms & conditions.

The Newmarket July Festival Preview – Day 1

The Newmarket July Festival Preview – Day 1

The tour bus for horse racing fans looking for top class entertainment, high quality racing & fiercely competitive action makes a long awaited stop at Newmarket this week with the East Anglian course known as the Headquarters of Racing the venue for 3 days of high class racing.

The 1000 & 2000 Guineas meeting has been & gone, the Dante meeting at York came & went, the Derby meeting at Epsom passed several weeks ago & the glitz, glamour & prestige of Royal Ascot finished 3 weeks ago & now it is the turn of the famous July meeting of Newmarket to showcase the sport of horse racing to the world & it certainly does look set to be one fantastic show.

This years July meeting at Newmarket is all set to deliver 21 top class, fiercely competitive races spread over 3 days packed full with intensity, great atmosphere & entertainment that will once again show the world what English horse racing has to offer.

So the quality action is guaranteed, the crowds of expectant people are guaranteed & a great atmosphere is also guaranteed but one thing that definitely cannot be guaranteed at Newmarket is punting success given the fiercely competitive nature of the races but hopefully that is where this article comes to use.

Over the next 3 days I will be looking at all the races taking place at Newmarket & each day of the 3 day July Festival I will be writing my race by race views & providing selections, all starting with my views on the action taking place on Thursday:
13:20 – Bahrain Trophy (Group 3), £50000.00 added, 3yo only, 1m 5f, Class 1, 6 runners:- Fantastic group of 6 select runners to start the day with & certainly a race that should provide entertainment & also give vital clues to the future as well with this race viewed as a valid St Leger trial.

There are only 6 runners but that doesn’t detract from the competitive or quality of the race & indeed it is not easy to rule out any of the runners with confidence although I do agree with the bookmakers assessment that this lies between Masked Marvel, Solar Sky & Census & I believe one of those three will win but deciding which one is the really tough part.

Census has been talked up as a very good contender for the St Leger so connections will be hopeful of a big run here with a very promising run at Royal Ascot the basis for that.

Masked Marvel brings the best form in terms of the quality of races in which he has competed & John Gosden’s Derby runner does set a very high standard here & should be involved when it matters, as long as his stamina holds up over this extended trip.

Solar Sky ran with immense credit at Royal Ascot over 2 miles & certainly Henry Cecil will believe that his runner will enjoy & appreciate the drop back in trip here & another serious contender in a tight race to solve.
I expect one of Solar Sky, Masked Marvel & Census to take this race and in my view Henry Cecil’s Solar Sky looks a progressive type who will find more improvement here & might just be the value call to take this ahead of Census with Masked Marvel in the mix.
Main Selection:- Solar Sky   Main Danger: Census

 

 

13:50 – TNT July Stakes (Group 2), £60000.00 added, 2yo only, 6f, Class 1, 8 runners:- Another highly fascinating contest here with 8 incredibly promising 2 year olds booked to run & certainly 8 horses who should prove worth following no matter what happens here.

The bookmakers have this down as a 3 horse race with Roman Soldier, Frederick Engles & Church Music and I would tend to agree on that as their form & their potential for much more looks certain to come here but deciding which one of those three will come home victorious in this one is a tough call to make.

Roman Soldier & Frederick Engles both displayed excellent form at Royal Ascot & indeed those formlines look very, very good so splitting them is very, very tough but I have a feeling that there is far more to come from Roman Soldier & I am taking Jeremy Noseda’s Coventry Stakes 2nd to go one better here & take the main prize with Frederick Engles & Church Music to fight out for the places.
Main Selection:- Roman Soldier    Main Danger:- Church Music
 

14:25 – sportingbet.com Handicap, £50000.00 added, 3yo only, 1m 2f, Class 2, 19 runners:- Well this race produced a 40/1 winner last year & given there are 19 runners taking each other in another fiercely competitive handicap there has to be a chance that history might repeat itself with another big priced winner in the race.

Races at Newmarket are tough enough when there are only 6 runners but trying to decide between 19 closely matched handicappers really is a tough task for punters with it very hard to rule anything in or out with confidence.

My usual approach in handicaps with fields of this size is to go with a group of 4 small stakes each way options that I feel have a fair chance & represent value and my four against the field are: Mijhaar, Swift Alhaarth, Club Oceanic & Tullius.

I think all 4 horses are progressive & have more improvement to come, all 4 should be well suited by race conditions & all 4 should be involved if reproducing their best form with Mijhaar my pick to come out on top at what should be his optimum trip this time around.
Main Selection:- Mijhaar  Main Dangers: Club Oceanic, Swift Alhaarth & Tullius

 

15:00 – Princess Of Wales’s sportingbet.com Stakes (Group 2), £80000.00 added, 3yo plus, 1m 4f, Class 1, 9 runners:- This exciting Group 2 contest usually turns out to be one of the top highlights of the entire July meeting & looking at this high class field that could well be the case again this year.

Excellent field of 9 top class horses take their chances here & no doubting that all 9 have some sort of chance to take the honours & all the runners have to be given major respect but in my view the winner will come from Redwood, Laaheb or Campanologist, those 3 head the ratings & set a very high standard for the others to aim at in this.

Redwood has travelled all over the world contesting high grade races & Barry Hill’s runner definitely brings top class form to the table that gives him a major chance of taking this with his form behind the brilliant Royal Ascot winner Rewilding the best form on offer here.

Campanologist has been around for a long time & has contested the very best races so although he’s not shown winning form for a long time, there are definitely signs he could be coming back to his very best & if he does that here he will go very close.

Laaheb is a very interesting runner, always been very highly regarded by owners & definitely holds a chance to go very close here as conditions should suit & trainers horses continue to do very well so a contender to have serious respect for here.
Main Selection:-  Redwood     Main Dangers: Laaheb & Campanologist
 

15:35 – Earl Of Euston E.B.F. Conditions Stakes, £12000.00 added, 2yo only, 6f, Class 3, 6 runners:- 6 very promising 2 year olds line up here with 4 last time out winners, all debutant winners by the way, all 6 runners have won a race somewhere so should be an excellent & competitive contest here.

Trying to assess 2 year olds with confidence is always tough at the best of times & trying to split these runners is tough as they represent powerful owners & top trainers so whichever horse wins this race, it should prove to a race well worth following for the future form lines.

I did mention that there are 4 horses here who all won their debut starts & it should prove to be that one of Hadaj, Burwaaz, Harbour Watch & Citizen’s Charter will win this & the others will be close behind fighting out for the places.

Burwaaz brings the best form into the race with an excellent race at Royal Ascot & he quite clearly sets the standard to aim at while the others have a great deal more improvement to come & might well get within range of Burwaaz so it’s a tough call splitting them but I am going to go with Clive Brittain’s Hadaj who won over course & distance before and that might just give him an edge in this one.
Main Selection:- Hadaj   Main Danger: Burwaaz
 

16:05 – Portland Place Properties Conditions Stakes, £13000.00 added, 3yo only, 1m, Class 3, 5 runners:- Great little race this one with 5 very good runners that will all believe are there with a chance so it should be a cracker to watch.

Fury has always been highly regarded by connections & he certainly brings the class form to the race with his run in the 2000 Guineas  testament to that & as long as the ground is not too firm then Fury should prove to be the one to beat here.

Cai Shen is forecast to be the main danger to all with Ryan Moore in the saddle for Richard Hannon & interestingly Hannon is well placed here with Casual Glimpse also thrown into the mix.

I expect one of Fury or Cai Shen to take this prize & they should finish very close so each other but on this occasion I am taking Kieron Fallon & Fury to show their extra class to win this big prize.
Main Selection:-  Fury    Main Danger: Cai Shen

 

16:40 – Three Chimneys Handicap, £13000.00 added, 3yo plus, 5f, Class 3, 10 runners:- Very interesting 5 furlong handicap here & certainly a tough race to try & crack with confidence.

10 closely matched horses blasting out over the 5 furlongs of Newmarket provides a really tough test for punters & if you are punter looking for a winner after a bad day then will certainly not cheer you up as anything is possible here.

The major contenders in this race should be Perfect Blossom who has amazing speed & will be hard to beat if back to top form while Apace & Jamesway look the most interesting of the rest.

This is tough to solve & any of them can win but I’m taking a chance on Perfect Blossom bouncing back to form while Apace & Jamesway can fight possibly fight out for the places.
Main Selection:-  Perfect Blossom    Main Dangers: Apace & Jamesway

As always, they are just my own views on the days racing at Newmarket & hopefully they help in some way, good luck with all the bets you may have & remember to shop around to get the best terms & conditions.