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Last weekend we took the decision to oppose odds-on Arsenal against Birmingham City at St. Andrews & it definitely looks worth doing the same for Liverpool this weekend.
Liverpool are 4/5 to win at Birmingham City but why are they odds on to do that when teams like Manchester United, Chelsea, Arsenal, Man City, Everton & Tottenham have all failed to do that.

The answer is Liverpool should not be odds-on given their poor away record of only 4 wins from 16 & indeed 8 away defeats already taking on a Birmingham City side who have only lost 2 of 16 home matches so far.

Another massive factor to this game is the fact Liverpool come here after having played an incredibly tough away fixture at Benfica on thursday & there are bound to be physical & mental affects on the Liverpool squad from that match.

Birmingham City have made it incredibly tough for teams to get anything at St Andrews this season & their record of 7 wins & 7 draws shows that with a remarkable statistic of only 11 league goals conceded at home which can only be bettered by Man United & Tottenham.

Incredible defensive strength, impressive organisation & a fantastic team spirit & commitment are Birmingham City’s key strengths to go along with their quality & experience and they will certainly again believe they can get a positive result here.

Goalscoring is the one major concern for Birmingham City but they have already achieved a 2-2 draw away against Liverpool this season & having scored goals against Tottenham, Everton, Man United & Arsenal here then there is every reason to believe they can get on the score sheet again here.

Tough, competitive & quite possibly physical battle looks assured here as Birmingham City are very strong & organised at home & Rafa Benitez is likely to set Liverpool up the same way so it is a tight game to call & on balance a low scoring draw looks a value bet worth taking in this one.

Betting Recommendations:

Outright Match Result: DRAW

Correct Score predictions: 1-1/2-2

First Goalscorer each way/Player to score anytime: Jerome/McFadden/Gerrard

Scorecast options: Jerome/McFadden/Gerrard score 1st & 1-1/2-2

Double Result: Birmingham H/T & DRAW F/T

The match stats below are compiled with major football betting markets in mind. They are presented as facts without recommendation, allowing you to spot trends and decide whether they have relevance as betting opportunities. Click any ‘Bet Now’ button to see a bet slip from that bookmaker.

NARRATIVE:

Arsenal scored in every game and have won their three matches at St Andrews by an aggregate score of 9-0. Birmingham failed to score in three of the five games, failing to recover in the three games where they were behind going into the break. Arsenal have scored two goals or more in four of the five matches but Arsene Wenger will have been frustrated at only rescuing one point when Arsenal failed to go into the interval without a lead.
Doubles: Birmingham 0—-Arsenal 2

MARKET:

Birmingham: 1 win–Draws: 1–Arsenal: 3 wins (goal difference: 4-12)

MARKET: Correct Score

None (five different score-lines)

MARKET: First team to score

Birmingham: 2—-Arsenal 3

MARKET: Even or odd total of goals:

Even: 3—-Odd: 2

The bookies have Arsenal priced around 4/7 to travel to Birmingham City & beat them but why should Arsenal be such a short price to do what Manchester United, Chelsea, Tottenham, Everton & Man City all failed to do?
The answer to that question is Arsenal should not be as short as 4/7 to win at Birmingham City & to be honest those odds are greatly disrespectful to the excellent job that Alex McCleish and the Birmingham City players have done this season & especially at home.

Birmingham City have been incredibly strong & hard to beat all season & particularly at home with their record of 7 wins & 6 draws from 15 games with only 2 sides having enough to win at St. Andrews in the league this season.

The basis of that strength at home has been their incredible defensive record with only 10 goals conceded in 15 games at home & they have managed to keep clean sheets in 7 of those games with only 2 teams scoring 2 or more goals in a league game at St. Andrews.

The achievement of being placed 9th in the Premier League is quite remarkable for Alex McCleish & his players and although they are unlikely to go any higher, they are certainly determined to achieve as many points as possible & home matches represent their best chance of doing that, no matter who they are playing.

In terms of recent form, Birmingham City come into this match with 2 defeats but we are expecting a really positive, committed response from Birmingham City in this one & after the defeat against Blackburn, Alex McCleish promised that the players would be certainly up for this one & ready to give absolutely everything again.

For Arsenal this is obviously a huge match given that they are only 2 points off the league leaders Manchester United & still holding an excellent chance of winning the title so the 3 points on offer do mean everything to Arsenal.

Arsenal always look to win matches & will of course look to play their positive, flowing style but how they handle coming up against Birmingham City’s totally committed, physically powerful & organised football will be the key to this match.

In terms of natural talent & quality then Arsenal definitely have a clear edge over Birmingham City & to be fair to Arsenal they have also shown greater spirit & strength this season but this will undoubtedly be a tough test & a very tough match to win.

The massive quandry for Arsene Wenger of course is the impending Champions League Quarter Final matches against Barcelona & obviously team selection may well be a major factor in this match.

Will Arsene Wenger want to risk the likes of Fabregas, Arshavin, Eduardo, Nasri & Rosicky againt Birmingham City and potentially not have them fit & ready for Barcelona? – we don’t know what Arsene Wenger will do with team selection but there must be a very big chance that several of the key players will be rested & that will have a big impact on how Arsenal play.

Another major factor is that Thomas Vermaelen, arguably Arsenal’s most consistent performer all season & their main organiser in defence, is suspended for this match & that means Arsenal are likely to rely on a new defensive partnership of Sol Campbel & Mikael Silvestre & that could cause big problems in a match of this nature.

This is obviously going to be a fascinating match & a real test for both sides so it’s hard to call with Birmingham City’s impressive home record possibly the key factor & while a scoring draw looks tempting, we are going to take a value punt on Birmingham City pulling off their biggest win of the season & putting a huge dent in Arsenal’s title hopes.

Betting Recommendations:

Outright Match Result: Birmingham City to win

Correct Score Options: Birmingham City to win 2-0/2-1

First Goalscorer each way/Player to score anytime: McFadden/Jerome/Larsson

Scorecast options: McFadden/Jerome/Larsson score 1st & Birmingham City win 2-0/2-1

Double Result: Birmingham City H/T & F/T

The pressure is really on now throughout the entire Premier League as teams chase the title, Champions League places, european places & even fighting to avoid relegation so there is everything to play with these midweek games of massive importance to everybody concerned.
There are 5 massively important Premier League games taking places over tuesday & wednesday night and here are our thoughts on those matches & the value bets we think are worth consideration:

West Ham United vs Wolves – (Tuesday 8.00pm)

Intense relegation battle, high pressure 6 pointer, whichever way we look at this game between West Ham & Wolves there can be escaping how vital it is to everybody involved.

18th place West Ham & 17th place Wolves clash here in a game where the rewards for winning are massive step closer to Premier League safety & cost of failure is anoter step closer to relegation.

It is one of those classic must win but can’t lose matches that become a regular occurrance at this high pressure stage of the season as teams fight for their future with everything at stake.

West Ham United & Wolves are down near the bottom of the league & in danger of relegation because they have not been good enough throughout the season & have lacked quality in all areas but all that can be forgotten & the only thing that matters here is what happens on the night.

Tactically both teams are set up to be positive, attacking sides & both West Ham United & Wolves have to view this as a massive chance to gain 3 vital points so we really do expect both sides to have a real go here.

Gianfranco Zola showed the importance of this match by resting several key players against Arsenal & we fully expect the likes of Mark Noble, Scott Parker, Carlton Cole & Benni McCarthy to return to the West Ham United starting line-up & that will certainly boost their chances.

West Ham United have to win games & achieve points in their home match so we expect West Ham to really go for this with a high tempo start, look for the early goal & then use that advantage to force Wolves out.

Mick McCarthy has a very simple approach with his Wolves side with a commitment of maximum effort & endeavour in every game and see where it gets them at the end of the match.

Now that might sound to simplistic assessment of Wolves but it is accurate as they are a side with no real obvious quality but an abundance of players who have the drive & determination to give their best every game & at this stage of the season that is a massive plus as they showed by getting an excellent draw at Aston Villa.

Wolves are not the type of side to try & defend by keeping it tight so we also expect them to have a got here which should really open this game up & particularly later on in the match.

Both West Ham & Wolves have to look to get a win or at least something positive from this match so it looks certain to be an open game with anything possible but home advantage could well be massive here & we are taking West Ham United to be lifted by their crowd & take 3 absolutely massive points here.

Betting Recommendations:

Outright Match Result: West Ham United to win

Correct Score options: West Ham United to win 2-1/3-1

First Goalscorer each way/Player to score anytime: Cole/Noble/McCarthy

Scorecast options: Cole/Noble/McCarthy score 1st & West Ham United 2-1/2-1

Double Result: West Ham H/T & F/T

Aston Villa vs Sunderland – (Wednesday 7.45pm)

Sometimes it pays in football betting to ignore the obvious statistics, discard the form & just follow your gut instinct and for us this is one of those matches.

Aston Villa with only 2 home league defeats all season & unbeaten at home since late december are rated 1/2 shots to win this & take on a Sunderland side rated at 11/2 chances with only 1 away win all season & an average of 2 goals conceded in every away game.

Aston Villa are still in the mix for finishing 4th & taking the Champions League place while Sunderland continue to secure their Premier League status so clearl the 3 points matter the same to both sides.

Those statistics deserve respect & certainly make the odds look acceptable so why is is then do we have a feeling Sunderland can actually win this match & are a worth a bet to do so.

Well the first thing is that Aston Villa were rated 4/9 shots to beat lowly Wolves at home on saturday & could only struggle to a 2-2 draw thanks to a late equaliser and they have failed on a number of occasions at home to deliver when odds on to do so.

The signs were not good for Aston Villa during that game as they struggled badly against a limited Wolves side & overall Aston Villa just looked like a very tired side struggling to handle the pressure of the situation & the number of games they have played recently.

Obviously to win this match Sunderland have to go to Aston Villa & have the quality to score goals, get a lead & hold on to that lead which has obviously been a huge struggle for them but perhaps this could just be the right time to play Aston Villa.

Sunderland come into this match with a very good current form record with only 1 defeat in their last 8 premier league matches & with Darren Bent firing in the goals again, Sunderland have the look of a decent side again & ready to improve their poor away form.

Obviously Aston Villa will look to bounce back here & it will not be easy for Sunderland in this match but in our view Aston Villa look vulnerable & that makes an in form Sunderland side with a potent Darren Bent look a value bet to cause a shock & get the away win

Betting Recommendations:

Outright Match Result: Sunderland to win

Correct Score options: Sunderland to win 2-0/2-1

First Goalscorer each way/Player to score anytime: Bent/Jones/Malbranque

Scorecast options: Bent/Jones/Malbranque score 1st & Sunderland win 2-1/3-1

Double Result: Sunderland H/T & F/T

Manchester City vs Everton – (Wednesday 7.45pm)

This looks a truly fascinating contest with Champions League chasing Manchester City welcoming a bang in form Everton side & it really should be a competitive, physically intense match.

The betting market for this match has Manchester City as slightly odds-on favourites to win & given they so far have an unbeaten home league record of 9 wins & 4 draws with an average of over 2.5 goals scored per home match those odds do look fair.

On the other hand, Everton’s odds of 10/3 to win might look a little short judged on their poor overall away form but judged on their excellent recent form those odds might look very generous to others.

Of course there is also the draw priced up at 9/4 & that might be a tempting option given how competitive this match is going to be & how talented both squads are.

Both Manchester City & Everton are sides packed full with top class talent as Manchester City can boast Tevez, Wright-Phillips, Bellamy, Barry, Santa Cruz & Everton bring the likes of Arteta, Cahill, Saha, Yakubu & Piennaar so there is nothing to choose between them in terms of talent.

Manchester City & Everton both also come into this match in excellent form with Manchester City have had that stunning 4-2 win at Chelsea & an excellent win away at Fulham while Everton really are hitting their best form & come here totally confident as well so this looks a real coin flip in our minds.

Manchester City deserve to be favourites given the strength of their home form & Everton have to respected given their excellent recent form so that does make a scoring draw very tempting option but we are going to take a chance on Everton edging this & their odds make them a worthy value bet to take the points.

Betting Recommendations:

Outright Match Result: Everton to win

Correct Score options: Everton to win 2-0/2-1

First Goalscorer each way/Player to score anytime: Cahill/Arteta/Saha

Scorecast options: Cahill/Arteta/Saha score 1st & Everton win 2-0/2-1

Double Result: Everton H/T & F/T

Portsmouth vs Chelsea – (Wednesday 7.45pm)

Without being disrespectful to a Portsmouth side who have shown tremendous heart & spirit in recent weeks, this game only really evolves around Chelsea & their need to bounce straight back to winning form.

The blow of losing to Inter Milan & going out of the Champions League was a tremendously powerful one for the Chelsea squad & management & that was multiplied further by the major disappointment of only drawing against Blackburn on sunday.

Quite simply Chelsea have to win this to stay in the Premier League title race & that should be the most important factor which should ultimately determine the final result in Chelsea’s favour.

Portsmouth are not completely & totally dismissed because they are showing unbelievable spirit & fight at present in all of their games but they are bottom because they deserve to be & because they lack the quality.

Chelsea’s undoubted quality has not been seen in the last couple of performances & while the pressure is intensifying on them to win matches, Chelsea have enough quality & experience within their side to travel to this game, put on a performance and win the game.

The Portsmouth fans & players will be up for this one but so will the Chelsea players because failure to win this will be an almost fatal blow to their title hopes so we expect Chelsea to make their extra quality pay & take the points.

Betting Recommendations:

Outright Match Result: Chelsea to win

Correct Score options: Chelsea to win 2-0/3-0

First Goalscorer each way/Player to score anytime: Drogba/Lampard/Anelka

Scorecast options: Drogba/Lampard/Anelka score 1st & Chelsea win 2-0/3-0

Double Result: Chelsea H/T & F/T

Blackburn Rovers vs Birmingham City – (Wednesday 8.00pm)

In terms of trophies, european places or relegation fights then neither Blackburn Rovers or Birmingham City have nothing to play for as both are safe & will most probably finish were they are now but that won’t stop this being a full blooded, competitive battle on the night.

Sam Allardyce & Alex McCleish are two intensely proud men who take immense pride in making their sides intensely competitive, determined & a will to give everything in every match no matter what is at stake so we expect much the same here.

Blackburn Rovers come into this match with the terrific boost of gaining a hard earned but deserved point against Chelsea & their excellent home form gives them every reason to be confident.

Blackburn Rovers have an excellent home record this season with only 2 defeats from 15 home league matches with an average of less than 1 goal conceded per match.

Sam Allardyce is committed to finishing the season strong & certainly wants to maintain their excellent home form so we are expecting another strong, determined performance from Blackburn in this match & they should prove to be extremely hard to beat.

Alex McCleish & his Birmingham City players have already achieved their seasons target with Premier League status secured a long time ago but McCleish is not the type of man to rest on that & he will want to push Birmingham City on right to the end of the season.

Birmingham City are 9th in the table now & will almost certainly finish their but the remaining games are still important to Birmingham City because they are a club who pride themselves on giving 100% in every single match & that is what we expect them to do here in this one.

Birmingham City have built their season on being well organised, committed & an incredible team spirit which has made them incredibly competitive in almost all of their matches & hard to beat so they will certainly give Blackburn a test although their recent away form is a concern.

Portsmouth did win away at Portsmouth recently but they have lost their other 4 away matches in recent times & that has to be a concern going up against a Blackburn Rovers side with such a strong home record & a draw looks likely to be the best Birmingham City can achieve here.

Now this game is unlikely to be about world class, flowing football & much more likely to be about physical commitment, solid team play & effort so a draw is a tempting option but Blackburn Rovers home record is impressive & so at a shade of odds against Blackburn Rovers do look a great bet to get another home win.

Betting Recommendations:

Outright Match Result: Blackburn Rovers win

Correct Score options: Blackburn Rovers win 2-0/2-1

First Goalscorer each way/Player to score anytime: Pedersen/Kalinic/Diouf

Scorecast options: Pedersen/Kalinic/Diouf score 1st & Blackburn Rovers win 2-0/2-1

Double Result: Blackburn Rovers H/T & F/T

The match stats below are compiled with major football betting markets in mind. They are presented as facts without recommendation, allowing you to spot trends and decide whether they have relevance as betting opportunities. Click any ‘Bet Now’ button to see a bet slip from that bookmaker.

NARRATIVE:

Blackburn comes to the gig on a hat trick whilst the home side have scored in all five games to date. Birmingham have scored in four of the five matches but have only claimed three of the fifteen points on offer. The visitors have yet to open the scoring. Doubles: Neither team has beaten their opponents both home and away in a single season to date.

MARKET:

Blackburn: 2 wins–Draws: 3–Birmingham: No wins (goal difference: 9-6)

MARKET: Correct Score

2 x 1-1

MARKET: First team to score

Blackburn: 5—-Birmingham: 0

MARKET: Even or odd total of goals:

Even: 4—-Odd: 1

This season has definitely been a case of Sunderland under achieving & Birmingham City most definitely over achieving but in terms of this match it really all is about Sunderland & what they get from it.
Obviously Birmingham City have just an important part to play in this match as Sunderland do but Birmingham City just about know they will finish either 8th or 9th which is incredible and they will be tremendously happy with that but Sunderland are fighting relegation & their need for the points are much greater in this one.

Steve Bruce knows that Sunderland are not safe yet & although they have had the recent boost of getting 4 vital points in the last week or so, their incredibly tough looking set of final fixtures means that this is another must win game for Sunderland.

Birmingham City will be by no means easy but after this game Sunderland play Aston Villa & Liverpool away & Tottenham at home in their next 3 games & then potentially huge matches against all the relegation candidates & also at home to Manchester United.

So this home match is massively important to Sunderland & a win here would really take the pressure off of everybody at the club but Birmingham City will not make this easy.

Sunderland have been very strong at home so they will be confident of getting a result & they certainly showed enough against Manchester City to believe they can win this as long as they show enough threat up front & organisation at the back.

Alex McCleish is in our opinion a major contender for Manager of the Year given the incredible job he has done in taking Birmingham City to 8th place in the Premier League.

Birmingham City started the season as virtually everybody’s favourites to get relegated but the truth is they have been fantastic all season & thoroughly deserve what they have achieved.

Defensive strength, solid team organisation, a fantastic team spirit & an incredible willingness to compete in every match are the key strengths of this Birmingham City squad & why they will not be easy for Sunderland to beat in this one.

Birmingham City once again showed their incredible resilience last weekend by coming back from 2-0 down against a very good Everton team to earn a 2-2 draw & that should give them the belief they can definitely get something from this match.

The one major concern for Birmingham City remains goalscoring & whether they can get enough goals here to win is doubtful so a scoring draw looks to be their best chance.

The first goal is going to be absolutely vital because if Sunderland score it will really lift the crowd & Sunderland will then be strong favourite to win the match but if Birmingham City score that will put huge pressure on Sunderland & they may well struggle then to get something.

This is not an easy match to call because neither side are prolific in front of goal & it will be incredibly competitive so a draw looks tempting but we are going to just side with Sunderland who are strong at home & their greater need to win this can drive them to a massive 3 points.

Betting Recommendations:

Outright Match Result: Sunderland to win

Correct Score options: Sunderland to win 2-0/2-1

First Goalscorer each way/Players to score anytime: Bent/Malbranque/Jones

Scorecast options: Bent/Malbranque/Jones score 1st & Sunderland win 2-0/2-1

Double Result: Sunderland H/T & F/T

The match stats below are compiled with major football betting markets in mind. They are presented as facts without recommendation, allowing you to spot trends and decide whether they have relevance as betting opportunities. Click any ‘Bet Now’ button to see a bet slip from that bookmaker.

NARRATIVE:

Just four goals have been scored via three games with Birmingham turning their two victories into

8th place Birmingham City welcome 9th place Everton to St. Andrews with the scene set for a really intense, competitive but honest battle for the points.

Alex McCleish has done a fantastic job at Birmingham City, already guiding them to Premier League safety when relegation was widely expected & amazingly Birmingham City could well end up in the top half of the table.

Birmingham City have built their success on consistent team selection which has helped to develop an amazing work ethic, team spirit & real desire to be incredibly hard to beat.

That ‘hard to beat’ aspect is perfectly highlighted by Birmingham City’s very impressive home record with 7 wins & 5 draws from their 14 home league matches & incredibly only 8 goals conceded during those games which is joint best record in the entire Premier League.

Defensive strength & organisation has played a massive part in that but Birmingham City do also quality within their side with McFadden, Jerome, Bowyer & Larsson all capable of creating & scoring.

Admittedly, goalscoring has been a problem for Birmingham City & they have the 3rd lowest home goals total in the Premier League and that does pressure on their ability to get results.

Birmingham City do come into this match after a well deserved win against Portsmouth & that should give them confidence but they will know that Everton will provide a real proper test in this one.

David Moyes brings his Everton side to this match with a sole of winning & with a real determination to finish the league season as strongly as possible.

Everton have really improved in the last few months & now that key players such as Arteta are back from injury, Everton really do look an excellent side with real solidity & confidence right now.

Their 5-1 home win against Hull City last weekend was a fantastic team performance with dominant, quality football inspired by Arteta who controlled everything & Everton must believe they can beat anybody right now having recently beaten both Chelsea & Man United.

Importantly for Everton, they could well be boosted by the return of Loui Saha & Tim Cahill from injury and if either or both of those players return then Everton’s chances of winning this match will be further increased.

This is going to be a proper, full on competitive match as both Birmingham City & Everton are confident and will believe they can get something so a score draw is a very tempting option but Everton have been impressive in recent weeks & they look a value bet to make their extra quality pay here.

Betting Recommendations:

Outright Match Result: Everton to win

Correct Score options: Everton to win 2-0/2-1

First Goalscorer each way/Player to score anytime: Yakubu/Arteta/Cahill

Scorecast options: Yakubu/Arteta/Cahill score 1st & Everton win 2-0/2-1

Double Result: Everton H/T & F/T

The match stats below are compiled with major football betting markets in mind. They are presented as facts without recommendation, allowing you to spot trends and decide whether they have relevance as betting opportunities. Click any ‘Bet Now’ button to see a bet slip from that bookmaker.

NARRATIVE:

Everton are unbeaten in three having secured seven of the last nine points. Birmingham have only scored one goal during the aforementioned three game period, having scored more than one goal just once from five Premiership games against Everton to date. Both teams have taken full advantage on the one occasion they have taken a lead into the dressing room at half time, though as the home team, Birmingham will be disappointed with their record when level after forty five minutes of play. Doubles: Neither team has beaten the opposition both home and away in a single season to date.

MARKET:

Birmingham: 1 win–Draws: 2–Everton: 2 wins (goal difference: 5-4)

MARKET: Correct Score

2 x 0-1 & 2 x 1-1

MARKET: First team to score

Birmingham: 1—-Everton: 4

MARKET: Even or odd total of goals:

Even: 2—-Odd: 3

The match stats below are compiled with major football betting markets in mind. They are presented as facts without recommendation, allowing you to spot trends and decide whether they have relevance as betting opportunities. Click any ‘Bet Now’ button to see a bet slip from that bookmaker.

NARRATIVE:

Both teams have scored at least one goal in all four matches at Fratton Park. Despite this fact, Birmingham have failed to win, securing just 2/12 points in the process. It will be interesting to see if Saturday’s cup result influences this match in any way. Doubles: Portsmouth 1—-Birmingham 0

MARKET:

Portsmouth: 2 wins–Draws: 2–Birmingham: No wins (goal difference: 9-5)

MARKET: Correct Score

2 x 1-1

MARKET: First team to score

Portsmouth: 3—-Birmingham: 1

MARKET: Even or odd total of goals:

Even: 4—-Away: 0